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تقديرات المتوفرات من أضاحي العيد لسنة 2016

يتضمّن التقرير التالي تقديرات لأضاحي العيد لسنة 2016 التي أمدّتنا بها الاتحادات الجهوية وذلك بالتنسيق والتعاون مع الاتحادات المحلية والمندوبيات الجهوية للتنمية الفلاحية وفروع ديوان تربية الماشية وتوفير المرعى.
وبعد التنسيق والتشاور مع مصالح الإدارة العامة للإنتاج الفلاحي فإن التقديرات الدنيا تشير إلى توفّر نحو 1,133 مليون رأس من علوش العيد أغلبها من البركوس (حوالي 60 %) وهو ما يؤشر إلى زيادة احتمالية في حدود 8.5 % مقارنة بمتوفرات سنة 2015 .
وتعود هذه الزيادة الهامة في المتوفرات من العلوش إلى عديد الأسباب من أهمها:

  • تراجع الاستهلاك المحلي من اللحوم الحمراء بنسبة تتراوح بين 25 و 30 % حسب تحليل عديد المهنيين نتيجة تدني القدرة الشرائية للمواطن التونسي وتراجع القطاع السياحي.
  • تأثر قطاع اللحوم الحمراء بأزمة منظومة الحليب من خلال تفريط منتجي الحليب في الإناث المنتجة والأراخي للذبح بأسعار زهيدة.
  • تفريط عدد هام من مربي الأغنام والماعز في الإناث المنتجة للذبح بأسعار متدنية نتيجة ما تشهده بلادنا من جفاف للسنة الثانية على التوالي وارتفاع تكاليف التربية.
  • تأثر قطاع اللحوم الحمراء بأزمة قطاع الدواجن التي لازالت تشهدها بلادنا.
  • تهريب كميات هامة من العلوش من بلدان الجوار (ليبيا والجزائر) إلى بلادنا.

أمـا فيما يتعلق بتكلفــــة الإنتــــاج فهي تختلف حسب عديد العوامل أهمها الوزن:

  • علوش وزن أقل من 40 كلغ حي:
    تقدّر الكلفة بحوالي 10,300 دينار للكلغ الواحد حي متأثرة بعديد العوامل أهمها:
  • نقص المراعي الناجمة عن تواصل العوامل المناخية الصعبة ببلادنا للموسم الثاني على التوالي والتي ظهرت تأثيراتها بجميع مناطق البلاد وخصوصا على ولايات الوسط والجنوب أين سجّل نقص كبير في كميات الأمطار مقارنة بالمعدلات العادية.
  • النقص الحاصل في صابة القرط خلال الموسم الفارط والموسم الحالي من جهة وكذلك الشأن بالنسبة للتبن نتيجة تدني صابة الحبوب خلال موسمين متتالين وهي وضعية أدت إلى تنامي ظاهرة الاحتكار وتزايد نشاط المضاربين وتواصل ارتفاع أسعار الأعلاف الخشنة لتبلغ مستويات قياسية خلال هذه الفترة كما هو مبين بالجدول 1:

جدول 1: أسعار الأعلاف الخشنة بالجهات خلال شهر جويلية 2016
0002

ارتفاع مفاجئ في أسعار الأعلاف المركبة المخصصة للمجترات بنسب تتراوح بين 9و13 % خلال شهر جويلية 2016 مقارنة بشهر مارس 2016 والناجم عن ارتفاع سعـــــر فيتورة السوجا بنسبــة 30 % بين شهــري جويلية وجانــــفي 2016 (1130 د/طن مقابل 850 د/طن ) وارتفاع سعر الذرى العلفية وانهيار سعر صرف الدينار التونسي مقارنة بالعملات الأجنبية.

0003

0003-2

إحجام المطاحن عن تزويد الجهات بمادة السّداري منذ شهر شهر أفريل 2016 وترويج هذه المادة في المسالك الموازية بأسعار مضاعفة ( أكثر من 40 د/ق مقابل 25 د/ق كسعر قانوني) مقابل عجز الأطراف الحكومية عن ايجاد حلول عاجلة لهذه الوضعية واتخاذ ما يلزم من إجراءات قانونية.
وإذا اعتمدنا هامش ربح للفلاحين في حدود 15 % فإن أسعار بيع العلوش سوف تكون في حدود 12,200 دينار للكلغ حي.
0004-3

  •  بركوس وزن أكثر من 40 كلغ حي:
    تقدر كلفة الإنتاج بحوالي 9,600 د للكلغ الواحد حي موزّعة بين عناصر الإنتاج كما يلي:

0004-2
وإذا اعتمدنا هامش ربح للفلاحين في حدود 15 % فإن أسعار بيع البركوس سوف تكون في حدود 11,300 دينار للكلغ حي.

وإذ نؤكد على أن المتوفرات من الأضاحي تكفي لتغطية حاجيات العائلات التونسية المقدرة بحوالي 900 ألف رأس، فإننا نسجّل تخوّفات لدى المربين من تراجع الطلب على الأضاحي خلال عيد الأضحى 2016 لتزامنه مع العودة المدرسية وتواصل انهيار القدرة الشرائية للمواطن التونسي، وفي هذا الشأن يؤكد الاتحاد على ما يلي:

  1. إعداد خطة لاستيعاب بواقي عيد الأضحى 2016 بأسعار مناسبة حفاظا على مصالح المربين خاصة أن بعض التقديرات من قبل المهنيين تشير إلى إمكانية تراجع الطلب على أضاحي العيد بنسبة تفوق 20 %.
    ونظرا لتوفر كميات هامة من الأضاحي بالجهات الداخلية على غرار ولايات سيدي بوزيد والقصرين والكاف وسليانة والقيروان وما يتطلبه ذلك من إجراءات واستعدادات لتأمين ترويج هذه الكميات بالمدن الكبرى أساسا بتونس العاصمة والأحواز في ظلّ تخوف المربين من نقل خرفانهم لهذه المدن لدواعي أمنية وغياب أسواق مهيأة، فإن الاتحاد التونسي للفلاحة والصيد البحري يقترح ما يلي :

دعوة السادة الولاة و رؤساء البلديات إلى تخصيص فضاءات بمدن تونس الكبرى تتوفر بها جميع الظروف والمستلزمات الملائمة لبيع العلوش خاصة الجوانب الأمنية وضمان المتابعة الصحية للقطعان من طرف المصالح البيطرية و تجهيز هذه الفضاءات بآلات وزن تسمح للمربين باعتمادها في بيع الأضاحي وتمكين الشاري من الاستئناس بالوزن في تقدير ثمن الشراء وهو ما سيساعد حتما على شلّ نشاط الدخلاء و المضاربين الذين عادة ما يستغلون هذه المناسبات لتحقيق مرابيح مجحفة، و حتى تكون هذه الأسواق بمثابة البورصة الحقيقية للأسعار المتداولة للخرفان .
وإن الاتحاد التونسي للفلاحة و الصيد البحري إذ يؤكد على ضرورة توفير آلات وزن بنقاط بيع الخرفان فذلك إيمانا منه بضرورة ترسيخ ثقافة البيع بالميزان باعتبارها الآلية المثلى لضمان حقوق جميع الأطراف المعنية من مربين و مستهلكين.
التصدي لعمليات السرقة و النهب و الاعتداء على المربين التي تتزايد بمناسبة عيد الأضحى و ذلك من خلال:

  • تكوين خلايا يقظة ومراقبة مشتركة تضم مختلف الأطراف المعنية بالحماية الأمنية وتتولى ضبط خطط تدخّل للحد من السرقة والنهب والاعتداء على المربين.
  • تركيز نقاط تفتيش قارة بالطرقات والمناطق التي تشهد تواتر عمليات النهب والسرقة.
  • إحداث فرق أمنية بالمناطق الريفية مختصة في التصدي لمختلف أنواع السرقات والنهب في القطاع الفلاحي يغلب على عملها الطابع الميداني بما يجعلها قريبة من مناطق الإنتاج وسريعة التدخل.

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